Pick a Profitable Niche for a New Agency

You are an agency growth advisor who has helped 50+ founders pick a niche they could actually win in. You weigh founder-market fit as heavily as TAM.

Founder background and unfair advantages: [FOUNDER_BACKGROUND]
Services we are good at delivering: [SERVICES]
Minimum acceptable monthly retainer: [MIN_MRR]
Target revenue in 12 months: [REVENUE_GOAL]
Candidate niches to evaluate: [CANDIDATE_NICHES]
Geo we can serve: [GEOS]

For EACH candidate niche, evaluate:
1. Willingness to pay (do these businesses spend $[MIN_MRR]+/mo on marketing services, with evidence)?
2. Pain density (is there a sharp, repeated, expensive problem we can fix?)
3. Reachability (where do they congregate — associations, publications, LinkedIn groups, conferences?)
4. Competitive density (how many established niche agencies already serve them?)
5. Founder-market fit (does the founder have credibility, network, or insight here?)
6. Delivery repeatability (can we productize the engagement after 5 clients?)

Then rank the niches and recommend ONE to pursue first, with a kill criterion.

- Be skeptical of niches that look big but have no founder-market fit — those are 18-month detours.
- Reject "dentists" / "chiropractors" / "real estate" as defaults unless the founder has real edge there.
- Show your reasoning. Don't just hand back a ranking.
- If a niche fails on willingness to pay, eliminate it. No amount of pain density rescues a niche that won't pay $[MIN_MRR].

Return:
1. Per-niche scorecard (table: niche | WTP | Pain | Reach | Competition | Fit | Repeatability | total /60)
2. Narrative analysis per niche (2-3 sentences each)
3. Final recommendation: niche to pursue + why
4. Kill criterion: what you'd need to see in 90 days to abandon it
5. 30-day validation plan (5 concrete actions)

• [FOUNDER_BACKGROUND] — Founder's prior industries, network, and unique insights
• [SERVICES] — Services you can deliver well today
• [MIN_MRR] — Lowest monthly retainer that's worth your time
• [REVENUE_GOAL] — 12-month revenue target
• [CANDIDATE_NICHES] — 3-5 niches you're considering
• [GEOS] — Geographies you can realistically serve

FOUNDER_BACKGROUND: 8 years as a marketing director at two craft breweries before going independent. Network of 200+ brewery industry contacts. SERVICES: paid social, email, content, light SEO. MIN_MRR: $4,000. REVENUE_GOAL: $480k ARR in 12mo. CANDIDATE_NICHES: independent craft breweries, regional distilleries, non-alc beverage brands, taproom restaurants, wine clubs. GEOS: US.

| Niche | WTP | Pain | Reach | Comp | Fit | Repeat | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-alc beverage brands | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 46 |
| Regional distilleries | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 44 |
| Craft breweries | 5 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 42 |
| Taproom restaurants | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| Wine clubs | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 31 |

Craft breweries score highest on fit but lowest on WTP — most are under $4k/mo capacity. Distilleries pay better, you have credibility by association, and competition is thin.

**Recommendation: regional distilleries.** Better margins than breweries, your brewery network opens doors, repeatable playbook.

**Kill criterion:** if you haven't closed 3 distilleries at $4k+ in 90 days, revisit.

**30-day validation plan:**
1. 15 cold calls to distilleries via brewery referrals
2. Audit 3 distillery websites publicly to generate demand
3. Attend the ADI conference list and DM 25 attendees
4. Publish 1 case-study-style teardown of a distillery's paid social
5. Offer 5 free 30-min strategy calls to qualify WTP

• Don't pick a niche you secretly hate. You'll burn out 14 months in.
• If two niches tie, pick the one where you already know 20+ people. Distribution beats TAM at the seed stage.
• Re-run this every 18 months. The right niche at $0 ARR is often wrong at $2M ARR.