Analyze · Forecasting & Gap-to-Quota

Build a Reverse-Engineered Pipeline Plan

Work backwards from a quota number to the exact pipeline, opportunities, and meetings each rep needs to generate — at your real win rates.

foundermanagerAdvanced4-5 hours of annual planning
When to use
Use at quarter or year start to translate quota into operational targets. Especially useful when setting weekly activity goals or onboarding a new rep and you need to show them what 'hitting quota' actually looks like in meetings and opps.
The prompt
You are a sales leader who runs forecast calls at digital marketing agencies. You translate quota into operational activity targets using real funnel math.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Target to reverse-engineer: [TARGET_REVENUE] over [TIME_PERIOD]
Win rate by stage: [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] | Blended win rate: [BLENDED_WIN_RATE]
Avg deal: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] | Cycle: [CYCLE_DAYS] days
Funnel conversions: meeting→opp [MEETING_TO_OPP_RATE] | opp→proposal [OPP_TO_PROPOSAL_RATE] | proposal→close [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE]
Number of reps: [NUM_REPS]
Reverse-engineer [TARGET_REVENUE] backwards through the funnel to determine the closed deals, proposals, qualified opps, and discovery meetings required per rep per week.

- Show ALL math step-by-step from revenue → closed deals → proposals → opps → meetings.
- Divide weekly targets by [NUM_REPS] for per-rep operational goals.
- Account for [CYCLE_DAYS] — meetings booked in last [CYCLE_DAYS] of the period won't close in time.
- Be conservative: use blended win rate, not best-stage win rate.
- Flag if per-rep weekly meeting target exceeds 15 (industry stress point for AEs also doing closing work).

1. Funnel waterfall: Revenue → Closed Deals → Proposals → Qualified Opps → Discovery Meetings
2. Per-rep weekly targets: Meetings | Opps | Proposals | Closes
3. Sanity check: total meetings × cycle days — does the timeline support the target?
4. One-paragraph plan summary leadership can put in the comp/territory doc
Variables
  • [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
  • [SERVICES] — Services sold
  • [TARGET_REVENUE] — Revenue target to reverse-engineer
  • [TIME_PERIOD] — Time period (quarter, year, etc.)
  • [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] — Win rate per stage
  • [BLENDED_WIN_RATE] — Overall blended win rate
  • [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average deal size
  • [CYCLE_DAYS] — Sales cycle in days
  • [MEETING_TO_OPP_RATE] — Meeting to opp conversion
  • [OPP_TO_PROPOSAL_RATE] — Opp to proposal conversion
  • [NUM_REPS] — Number of quota-carrying reps
Example input
Agency: Lumen Strategy — full-service agency
Target: $1.6M over 12 months
Win rate by stage: Proposal 35% | Blended 22% | Avg deal $32k | Cycle 60d
Meeting→opp 50% | Opp→proposal 60% | Proposal→close 35%
Reps: 2 AEs
Example output
Funnel waterfall:
- Revenue: $1.6M
- Closed deals: $1.6M ÷ $32k = 50 closes
- Proposals: 50 ÷ 0.35 = 143 proposals
- Qualified opps: 143 ÷ 0.60 = 239 opps
- Discovery meetings: 239 ÷ 0.50 = 478 meetings

Per-rep weekly (50 working weeks / 2 reps = 25 rep-weeks each):
- Meetings: 478 / (50×2) ÷ rep / wk × 2 reps → ~5 meetings/rep/week
- Opps: ~2.4/rep/wk
- Proposals: ~1.4/rep/wk
- Closes: ~0.5/rep/wk (25/year per rep)

Sanity check: 478 meetings × 60-day avg cycle requires booking 80%+ of meetings in first 9 months. Meetings booked in Oct–Dec largely close next year — bake in 15% slip.

Summary: To hit $1.6M each AE needs ~5 discovery meetings/week, converting to ~25 closes/year at $32k avg. Both flags within healthy capacity (<15 meetings/wk). Build SDR support to maintain meeting pace through Q4.
Pro tips
  • Re-baseline conversion rates every 2 quarters — stale assumptions break the math.
  • If per-rep meeting target exceeds 15/week, you have a hiring problem, not a closing problem.
  • Share this plan with reps day 1 — quota stops feeling arbitrary when they see the activity math.
Works with
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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