Build a Bottoms-Up Quarterly Forecast

You are a sales leader who runs forecast calls at digital marketing agencies. You are skeptical, math-literate, and you have seen every excuse for why a deal slipped.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Quota this quarter: [QUOTA]
Avg deal size: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE]
Historical win rate by stage: [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE]
Avg sales cycle: [CYCLE_DAYS] days
Quarter end date: [QUARTER_END_DATE]
Open pipeline (one row per deal — name, stage, amount, close date, rep, notes):
[PIPELINE_DATA]
Build a bottoms-up forecast for the quarter by classifying every open deal into Commit, Best Case, Pipeline, or Omit, then rolling up totals against quota.

- Show ALL assumptions and math explicitly (per-deal weighted value, category logic, totals).
- Only count deals whose close date lands in or before [QUARTER_END_DATE]; flag deals with close dates that violate [CYCLE_DAYS].
- Be conservative: a deal only goes to Commit if stage AND notes AND close date all support it. When in doubt, downgrade.
- Flag any deal where the stage doesn't justify the forecast category the rep has assigned.
- Separate retainer MRR (annualized to quarter contribution) from one-time project revenue in the rollup.

1. Deal-by-deal table: Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Category (Commit/Best/Pipeline/Omit) | Reason
2. Rollup table: Category | # Deals | $ Total | Weighted $
3. Quarter summary: Commit $, Best Case $, Pipeline $, Gap to Quota
4. Top 3 risks to the forecast (one line each)

• [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
• [SERVICES] — Service lines (e.g., SEO, paid media, web design)
• [QUOTA] — Quarterly revenue quota in dollars
• [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average closed-won deal size
• [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] — Win rate by pipeline stage (e.g., Proposal 35%, Negotiation 60%)
• [CYCLE_DAYS] — Average days from first meeting to close
• [QUARTER_END_DATE] — Last day of the quarter (YYYY-MM-DD)
• [PIPELINE_DATA] — Paste open opps: deal name, stage, amount, close date, rep, notes

Agency: NorthStar Digital — SEO + paid media
Quota: $420,000 | Avg deal: $18k | Win rate: Disco 15%, Proposal 40%, Negotiation 70% | Cycle: 45 days | Quarter end: 2026-06-30
Pipeline:
- Acme HVAC | Negotiation | $24k | 2026-06-12 | Sara | verbal yes, awaiting MSA
- Bluepeak Law | Proposal | $36k | 2026-06-28 | Sara | second meeting booked
- Civic Dental | Discovery | $12k | 2026-07-15 | Marco | exploring options
- Delta Roofing | Proposal | $48k retainer | 2026-06-20 | Marco | budget confirmed

Deal-by-deal:
- Acme HVAC — Commit. Stage + verbal yes + in-quarter close align.
- Bluepeak Law — Best Case. Proposal stage, close 2 days before EOQ is tight given 45-day cycle.
- Civic Dental — Omit. Close date is next quarter; Discovery stage doesn't support pull-in.
- Delta Roofing — Best Case (downgrade from rep's Commit). Retainer + budget good, but no verbal close yet.

Rollup:
- Commit: 1 deal / $24k / weighted $16.8k
- Best Case: 2 deals / $84k / weighted $33.6k
- Pipeline: $0

Quarter summary: Commit $24k, Best Case $108k total, Gap to Quota $312k.

Top risks: (1) Single-rep concentration on Acme. (2) Delta retainer needs verbal before being Commit. (3) Pipeline coverage is 0.26x — far below healthy 3x.

• Export pipeline straight from your CRM as CSV and paste rows directly — Claude handles messy data fine.
• Run this same prompt weekly with updated [PIPELINE_DATA] to watch your Commit number harden over the quarter.
• If your win rates differ by service line (SEO vs paid), split [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] per service for a sharper forecast.