Analyze · Forecasting & Gap-to-Quota

Build a Best-Case / Worst-Case Forecast Range

Generate a defensible forecast range — worst, likely, best — from your current agency pipeline so leadership can plan hiring and cash with confidence.

foundermanagerIntermediate⏱ 2 hours per board prep
When to use
Use when the founder or CFO needs a range, not a point estimate — e.g., for hiring decisions, cash runway planning, or board reporting. Also useful when your pipeline has high variance (a few big retainers can swing the quarter).
The prompt
You are a sales leader who runs forecast calls at digital marketing agencies. You produce a range, not a single number, when uncertainty is high — and you defend each scenario with deal-level math.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Quota: [QUOTA] | Closed-won to date: [CLOSED_WON_TO_DATE] | Quarter end: [QUARTER_END_DATE]
Win rate by stage: [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] | Avg deal: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] | Cycle: [CYCLE_DAYS] days
Open pipeline:
[PIPELINE_DATA]
Build a 3-scenario forecast: Worst Case (downside), Likely (weighted), Best Case (upside). Show the deal-level assumptions that move a deal between scenarios.

- Show ALL math: per-deal probability assignment per scenario, weighted contribution, totals.
- Worst Case: only Negotiation-stage deals with verbal yes count. Everything else = 0.
- Likely: apply [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] by stage to each deal, only for deals closing in-quarter.
- Best Case: assume all in-quarter Proposal+ deals close AND 1-2 pull-forwards land.
- Never round generously in Worst Case. Never invent deals in Best Case beyond named pull-forwards.
- Flag any deal whose rep forecast assumes Best Case math by default.

1. Per-deal table: Deal | Stage | Amount | Worst $ | Likely $ | Best $ | Notes
2. Scenario totals: Worst | Likely | Best (all 3 vs Quota with gap/surplus)
3. The single deal that swings each scenario most (sensitivity)
4. One-sentence narrative leadership can take to the board
Variables
  • [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
  • [SERVICES] — Services sold
  • [QUOTA] — Quarterly quota
  • [CLOSED_WON_TO_DATE] — Revenue closed so far
  • [QUARTER_END_DATE] — Quarter end date
  • [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] — Win rate per stage
  • [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average deal size
  • [CYCLE_DAYS] — Average cycle days
  • [PIPELINE_DATA] — Open opportunities
Example input
Agency: Crestline Media — paid social + creative
Quota $360k | Closed $140k | EOQ 2026-06-30
Win rate: Disco 12%, Proposal 38%, Negotiation 65% | Avg deal $25k | Cycle 55d
Pipeline:
- AltaPeak | Negotiation | $60k | 2026-06-18 | verbal yes
- BlueBranch | Proposal | $40k | 2026-06-22 | second meeting booked
- CedarPoint | Proposal | $30k | 2026-06-28 | reviewing proposal
- DuneRise | Discovery | $25k | 2026-06-30 | early stage
Example output
Per-deal:
- AltaPeak: Worst $60k (verbal), Likely $39k (65%), Best $60k
- BlueBranch: Worst $0, Likely $15.2k (38%), Best $40k
- CedarPoint: Worst $0, Likely $11.4k (38%), Best $30k
- DuneRise: Worst $0, Likely $3k (12%), Best $25k (low confidence, flag)

Totals (Closed $140k +):
- Worst: $200k | Gap to quota $160k
- Likely: $208.6k | Gap $151.4k
- Best: $295k | Gap $65k

Swing deals: AltaPeak (anchors Worst at $200k), BlueBranch (biggest delta Worst→Best).

Board narrative: Pipeline supports a $200k–$295k range this quarter, with current Likely landing at $209k — a $151k gap to a $360k quota that won't close without 5+ net-new closes by 6/30.
Pro tips
  • Show the range to your CFO every two weeks — Worst Case is your cash-planning number.
  • If Best Case still misses quota, you're not facing a forecasting problem, you're facing a pipeline-coverage problem.
  • Re-grade probability per scenario weekly — the spread should narrow as the quarter progresses.
Works with
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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