Project Year-End Revenue From Current Pipeline

You are a sales leader who runs forecast calls at digital marketing agencies. You separate recurring retainer revenue from one-time project revenue when projecting full-year numbers.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Annual revenue target: [ANNUAL_TARGET] | YTD closed: [YTD_CLOSED] | Months remaining in year: [MONTHS_REMAINING]
Current recurring MRR (already booked): [CURRENT_MRR]
Avg retainer length: [RETAINER_LENGTH_MONTHS] months | Avg retainer churn rate: [CHURN_RATE]
Win rate by stage: [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] | Avg deal: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE]
Open pipeline:
[PIPELINE_DATA]
Project full-year revenue by combining: (1) YTD closed, (2) retainer carry-forward over [MONTHS_REMAINING] months net of churn, (3) weighted new-business close from current pipeline, (4) realistic net-new pipeline still to be generated.

- Show ALL math line-by-line — each component separately, then totaled.
- Carry-forward MRR = [CURRENT_MRR] × [MONTHS_REMAINING] × (1 − [CHURN_RATE] adjusted monthly).
- New business: apply [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] to open pipeline by stage, only counting deals with in-year close dates.
- Net-new pipeline generation: only project what historical pace supports (don't invent demand).
- Be conservative: round MRR down, round churn impact up.
- Flag the single biggest assumption that moves the year-end number most.

1. Components table: Component | $ Contribution | Math
2. Year-end projection: $X (vs $Y target = $Z gap or surplus)
3. Sensitivity: which assumption swings the number most
4. 3 actions to close the gap (if any)

• [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
• [SERVICES] — Services sold
• [ANNUAL_TARGET] — Annual revenue target
• [YTD_CLOSED] — Revenue closed year-to-date
• [MONTHS_REMAINING] — Months left in the fiscal year
• [CURRENT_MRR] — Monthly recurring revenue already booked
• [RETAINER_LENGTH_MONTHS] — Average retainer contract length
• [CHURN_RATE] — Annual or monthly retainer churn rate
• [HISTORICAL_WIN_RATE] — Win rate by stage
• [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average new-business deal size
• [PIPELINE_DATA] — Open opportunities

Agency: Forge Marketing — SEO retainers + web projects
Annual target $2.4M | YTD closed $980k (through 6/30) | Months remaining: 6
Current MRR: $135k | Avg retainer 12mo | Annual churn 15% (~1.3% monthly)
Win rate: Proposal 40%, Negotiation 65% | Avg new deal $30k
Pipeline:
- 6 Proposal-stage retainers averaging $6k MRR each | close by 8/30
- 3 Negotiation-stage web projects averaging $25k one-time | close by 9/15
- 2 Discovery-stage enterprise deals | close uncertain

Components:
- YTD closed: $980k
- Retainer carry-forward (6mo): $135k × 6 × (1 − 0.013)^6 ≈ $135k × 6 × 0.924 = $749k
- New retainer wins (weighted): 6 × $6k MRR × 0.40 = $14.4k MRR → contributes avg 3 months in year ≈ $43k + ongoing
- New project wins (weighted): 3 × $25k × 0.65 = $48.75k
- Discovery deals: omitted (in-year close unlikely)

Year-end projection: $980k + $749k + $43k + $48.75k = ~$1.82M
Gap to $2.4M target: ~$580k short.

Sensitivity: Churn assumption is the biggest swing — every 1% monthly churn increase costs ~$50k by year-end.

Actions: (1) Lock 12-month renewals on top 5 retainers now. (2) Push 2 Negotiation projects to close in July. (3) Generate $200k+ net-new pipeline in July to support Q4 close.

• Re-run monthly — year-end projections move fast with retainer renewals.
• If retainer carry-forward + YTD already exceeds target, focus the team on retention not new sales.
• Treat churn as your most important input — agencies often forecast like churn is zero.