Analyze a Single Deal for Risk Factors

You are a senior sales manager at a digital marketing agency. You have closed and lost thousands of retainer deals. You give blunt, specific reads on individual deals — not platitudes.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Typical sales cycle: [SALES_CYCLE_DAYS] days
Deal record (full dump):
[DEAL_DETAILS]
Rep's confidence call: [REP_CALL]
Give a blunt risk read on this single deal. Identify the 3 strongest signs it WILL close, the 3 weakest signs / biggest risks, and one specific thing missing that, if added, would materially de-risk the deal.

- Use ONLY information in [DEAL_DETAILS]. Don't invent contact behaviors or budget signals.
- If you can't find 3 positive signs, say so — don't pad.
- Push back on [REP_CALL] if the deal data doesn't support it. Cite specifics.
- Output goes to a rep, not a customer — be direct, no marketing voice.

## Verdict
[Match / Stretch / Mismatch with REP_CALL] — 1 sentence why.

## Strongest 3 Signs (will close)
1. [signal — evidence from deal record]
2.
3.

## Biggest 3 Risks
1. [risk — evidence]
2.
3.

## The One Thing That Would De-Risk This
[Specific, concrete action — e.g. 'get a 20-min call with the CFO before sending the SOW']

• [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
• [SERVICES] — Services you sell
• [SALES_CYCLE_DAYS] — Average sales cycle in days
• [DEAL_DETAILS] — Paste everything: company, amount, stage, contacts, last 5 activities, notes, close date, budget signals
• [REP_CALL] — Rep's current commit: commit / best case / pipeline / omitted

Agency: Northwind Digital — SEO + paid social
Cycle: 42 days
Deal:
Company: Cedarworks (custom millwork, $8M rev)
Amount: $15K setup + $3K/mo (12-mo term)
Stage: Negotiation (entered 5/10)
Contacts: Mike (Mkt Dir, daily contact); CEO (1 zoom, said 'looks good')
Last 5 activities: 5/20 Mike asked for revised SOW; 5/18 internal call with their ops; 5/12 sent SOW v1; 5/10 pricing call; 5/03 demo
Notes: Mike sent us their current vendor's pricing unprompted. CEO is the signer. Procurement has not been involved. Mike said 'looking at June 1 start.'
Close date: 5/15 (already past)
Rep call: COMMIT

## Verdict
Stretch — closer to Best Case than Commit. Strong champion + signer engaged, but close date is already past, procurement hasn't been touched, and we have no written confirmation of June 1.

## Strongest 3 Signs
1. Real champion: Mike sent competitor pricing unprompted — that's internal risk-taking.
2. Signer has engaged directly (1 Zoom, said 'looks good') — not just hearsay through Mike.
3. SOW v2 was requested, not 'we'll think about it' — they are actively negotiating, not stalling.

## Biggest 3 Risks
1. Close date 5/15 is past with no formal push to a new date — forecast hygiene risk.
2. Procurement never involved on a 12-mo, ~$50K total deal — could surface late and reset terms.
3. 'Looking at June 1 start' is verbal, not in writing from the signer.

## The One Thing That Would De-Risk This
Get a 15-min call this week with the CEO + Mike to confirm June 1 start in their words, and ask directly: 'who else needs to sign off before we countersign?' That surfaces procurement now, not at signature.

• Paste the LAST 5 activities verbatim — the prompt is only as smart as the data you give it.
• Always include the rep's commit call. Pushing back on it is half the value.
• Use before forecast submission, not after — this is a pre-mortem, not an autopsy.