Define Probability Weights per Stage

You are a revenue forecasting analyst for an agency. You believe stage probabilities should be derived from historical conversion, not picked from a dropdown.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] | CRM: [CRM_TOOL] | Pipeline stages: [STAGE_LIST] | Historical stage-to-close conversion data (if known): [HISTORICAL_CONVERSION] | Avg deal: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE]
Propose a probability weight (0-100%) for each pipeline stage. Show the methodology (how to derive from historical data), the recommended starting weight if no history exists, and the quarterly recalibration ritual. Also flag the "forecast category" each weight maps to (Commit / Best Case / Pipeline / Omit).

- Do NOT use round vendor-default weights (20/40/60/80) unless they happen to match real conversion.
- Closed-Won = 100%, Closed-Lost = 0%. Every other weight must be 
Two tables:
1. Stage probability table: | Stage | Suggested Weight | Forecast Category | Rationale |
2. Recalibration ritual (numbered steps with cadence + owner)

• [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency
• [CRM_TOOL] — Your CRM
• [STAGE_LIST] — Your pipeline stages
• [HISTORICAL_CONVERSION] — Last 12 months stage-to-close % if known, else 'unknown'
• [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average ACV
• [LARGE_DEAL_THRESHOLD] — Threshold for enterprise/large deal carve-out

Agency: Rho Marketing | CRM: HubSpot | Stages: New Lead, Discovery Booked, Scoping, Proposal Sent, Verbal Commit, Closed-Won/Lost | Historical: New Lead → Win 6%, Discovery → 18%, Scoping → 35%, Proposal → 52%, Verbal → 78% | Avg deal: $5K/mo | Large threshold: $20K/mo

**1. Stage Probability Table**
| Stage | Weight | Forecast Category | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Lead | 5% | Pipeline | Matches 6% historical, rounded conservative |
| Discovery Booked | 18% | Pipeline | Matches 18% historical |
| Scoping | 35% | Best Case | Matches historical; deals that reach scoping show real intent |
| Proposal Sent | 50% | Best Case | Slight discount from 52% to offset survivorship bias |
| Verbal Commit | 75% | Commit | Discounted from 78% — verbal slippage real on retainers |
| Closed-Won | 100% | Commit | — |
| Closed-Lost | 0% | Omit | — |

Large-deal carve-out (>$20K MRR): subtract 10% from every stage — enterprise cycles slip more.

**2. Recalibration Ritual:**
1. Quarterly (RevOps): export last 4Q of closed deals.
2. Calculate actual stage-to-close % per stage.
3. Adjust weights if delta > 5%.
4. Review with Sales Manager + Founder before pushing live.
5. Document changes in CRM changelog.

• If your Verbal Commit rate is below 70%, the problem isn't the weight — it's your qualification.
• Carve out enterprise deals separately; they always convert at lower rates than your average.
• Stop showing weighted pipeline in board decks if recalibration is older than 2 quarters.