Tracking · Forecast / Deal Hygiene Rules

Design a Forecast Categorization Schema (Commit / Best Case / Pipeline)

Define exactly what Commit, Best Case, and Pipeline mean at your agency so every rep categorizes the same way.

foundermanagerAdvanced⏱ 4-6 hours
When to use
Use this when reps are putting deals into Commit based on gut feel or politics rather than evidence. Set this schema once and reference it on every forecast call so re-categorizations require justification.
The prompt
You are a VP of Sales who has rolled out forecast categorization schemas at digital agencies running $5M-$30M ARR.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES] | CRM: [CRM_TOOL] | Quarterly quota: [QUOTA] | Avg deal size: [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] | Win rate by stage: [WIN_RATE_BY_STAGE].
Design a 3-tier forecast categorization schema (Commit / Best Case / Pipeline). For each category, specify the qualification criteria, the expected close-probability range, and what the rep must have in [CRM_TOOL] for a deal to qualify.

- Commit must require concrete signals (verbal yes, contract sent, start date confirmed) — not just stage.
- Best Case must have at least 2 quantifiable proof points (champion confirmed + budget approved, etc.).
- Probabilities must align with your actual [WIN_RATE_BY_STAGE] data, not generic 90/60/30.
- Each category must be filterable as a single field in [CRM_TOOL].

Schema doc with three sections (one per category), each containing: Definition, Required Evidence (bullet list), Probability Range, CRM Setup. End with a "Re-Categorization Rules" section explaining how/when a deal can move buckets.
Variables
  • [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
  • [SERVICES] — Services sold
  • [CRM_TOOL] — CRM in use
  • [QUOTA] — Quarterly quota per rep
  • [AVG_DEAL_SIZE] — Average MRR or one-time deal $
  • [WIN_RATE_BY_STAGE] — Your actual conversion % from each stage to Closed Won
Example input
Agency: Crestview Media — SEO + content retainers | CRM: HubSpot | Quota: $250K/qtr | Avg deal: $6.5K MRR | Win rates: Proposal 38%, Verbal 71%, Contract Sent 92%.
Example output
CRESTVIEW MEDIA — FORECAST CATEGORIZATION SCHEMA

COMMIT (90%+ probability)
- Verbal yes from decision maker, captured in HubSpot Notes with date.
- Contract sent OR MSA signed.
- Start date agreed in writing.
CRM: Forecast Category = Commit, Close Date this quarter, Contract URL field populated.

BEST CASE (50-89%)
- Champion confirmed + budget verbally approved.
- Proposal accepted, awaiting legal/procurement only.
- No competing agency actively pitching.
CRM: Forecast Category = Best Case, requires "Best Case Reason" field filled.

PIPELINE (10-49%)
- Qualified opportunity with confirmed pain + budget signal.
- Proposal sent but no verbal yet.
CRM: Forecast Category = Pipeline, default for all Stage 2-3 deals.

Re-Categorization: A deal can ONLY move up a tier with new evidence added in CRM Notes. Downgrades require no justification.
Pro tips
  • Pull your real win rates from the CRM before writing this — don't use industry averages.
  • Make Commit re-categorizations require manager approval to prevent sandbagging or padding.
  • Display the schema on the wall of the sales room (or pin in Slack) so it's always referenceable.
Works with
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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