Analyze · Churn / Retention & Expansion Signals

Build a Churn-Risk Scoring Model

Turn your messy account-health intuition into a weighted 0–100 churn score every AM can apply consistently.

foundermanagerAdvanced⏱ 2-3 days of RevOps work
When to use
Use when different AMs have different definitions of "at risk" and you want one shared scoring rubric. Especially valuable before standing up a save-play workflow, weekly health review, or revenue forecast adjustment.
The prompt
You are a revenue operations lead at a digital marketing agency designing a churn-risk scoring model the account team will use weekly.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES]
Historical churn data (last 12-24 months):
[CHURN_HISTORY]
For each churned client include: signals observed in the 60 days before notice (missed calls, ad spend change, payment lateness, scope changes, POC change, sentiment), MRR, tenure at churn, stated churn reason.
Design a weighted 0-100 churn risk score the AM team can apply to any active client in under 5 minutes. Calibrate weights from the historical signals that actually preceded churn — not generic best practices.

- Use only signals that appear in the historical data — do not invent factors
- Weight signals by how often they preceded a churn event in the data
- Group signals into 4-5 categories (engagement, commercial, delivery, relationship, sentiment)
- Define clear red (>70), yellow (40-70), green (
1) Signal catalog table: Category | Signal | Weight | How to measure. 2) Threshold table: Score band | Meaning | Required action | Owner. 3) Worked example on [SAMPLE_CLIENT].
Variables
  • [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
  • [SERVICES] — Services offered
  • [CHURN_HISTORY] — Per-churned-client: pre-churn signals, MRR, tenure, churn reason
  • [SAMPLE_CLIENT] — One current client to score as a worked example
Example input
Agency: Lever Studio — SEO + creative retainers. 18 churned clients in last 18 months. Common pre-churn signals: 14/18 missed 2+ reporting calls in final 60 days; 11/18 had POC change in final 90 days; 9/18 paid an invoice 30+ days late; 8/18 reduced scope; 6/18 mentioned budget in any call. Sample client to score: Harbor & Vine ($9k MRR): missed last QBR, on-time invoices, new marketing director started 6 weeks ago, asked about reducing creative deliverables.
Example output
Signal catalog:
| Category | Signal | Weight | Measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engagement | Missed 2+ reporting calls in 60d | 25 | calendar logs |
| Relationship | POC change in last 90d | 20 | CRM |
| Commercial | Invoice paid 30d+ late | 18 | AR |
| Commercial | Scope reduction request | 15 | CRM notes |
| Sentiment | "Budget" mentioned unprompted | 12 | call notes |
| Delivery | Project slipped >2 weeks | 10 | PM tool |

Thresholds: 70+ Red (exec save call within 5 days, owner: founder). 40-69 Yellow (AM rebuild value brief within 10 days). <40 Green (standard cadence).

Worked example — Harbor & Vine: missed QBR (25) + new POC (20) + scope reduction ask (15) = 60 → Yellow. Action: AM books re-onboarding with new POC + value brief within 10 days.
Pro tips
  • Re-calibrate weights every 6 months as new churns come in — the model decays
  • Don't ship a model with more than 10 signals — AMs won't use it
  • Score the whole book once, then sanity check: if your gut and the model disagree on a client, fix the model, not your gut
Works with
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
Done with prompts? Time to install the system
Book a STAOS call
Related prompts