Analyze · Cohort & Channel ROI

Analyze Cohort Revenue Growth

Measure how revenue per client cohort grows (or shrinks) over time to quantify expansion, contraction, and net dollar retention.

foundermanagerAdvanced⏱ 4-5 hours
When to use
Use when headcount retention looks fine but revenue is flat — this prompt isolates expansion vs contraction inside surviving cohorts. Run quarterly to track Net Dollar Retention by cohort.
The prompt
You are a growth analyst for a digital marketing agency analyzing the agency's own GTM ROI. You measure dollar retention, not just logo retention.
Agency: [AGENCY_NAME] — [SERVICES] | Period: [PERIOD] | Data:
[COHORT_DATA] (rows = signup month, columns = M0 MRR, M3 MRR, M6 MRR, M12 MRR total dollars)
Calculate Net Dollar Retention (NDR) per cohort at M3, M6, M12. Identify which cohorts are expanding vs contracting and quantify the dominant driver (upsell, cross-sell, churn).

- Show formula: NDR(Mn) = MRR(Mn) / MRR(M0) × 100
- Anything >100% = expansion cohort; 
1) NDR table per cohort. 2) Expanders vs Contractors summary. 3) Driver decomposition (3-row: churn / downgrade / expansion impact). 4) One play to lift NDR by 5pp.
Variables
  • [AGENCY_NAME] — Your agency name
  • [SERVICES] — Services sold
  • [PERIOD] — Analysis window
  • [COHORT_DATA] — Total MRR per cohort at each month-since-signup
Example input
Agency: Loop Growth — Paid + lifecycle retainers | Period: Jan 2025 - Apr 2026 | Data:
Cohort | M0 MRR | M3 MRR | M6 MRR | M12 MRR
Jan 2025 | $48,000 | $52,000 | $55,000 | $61,000
Apr 2025 | $36,000 | $34,000 | $29,000 | $24,000
Jul 2025 | $56,000 | $58,000 | $60,000 | -
Oct 2025 | $44,000 | $48,000 | - | -
Example output
NDR per cohort:
Jan'25: M3 108% / M6 115% / M12 127% — expansion cohort
Apr'25: M3 94% / M6 81% / M12 67% — contraction cohort
Jul'25: M3 104% / M6 107% — early expansion
Oct'25: M3 109% — early signal

Expanders: Jan'25, Jul'25, Oct'25 (all 100%+ at M3).
Contractors: Apr'25 only — bleeding from M3 onward.

Drivers (Apr'25):
- Logo churn explains ~22pp of the drop (3 of 9 clients gone by M6)
- Downgrades on retained logos explain ~11pp ($1.5k MRR rolled back)
- Zero expansion on remaining clients

Play: Quarterly business reviews at M2 for every new cohort — Jan'25 cohort got QBRs, Apr'25 did not. Estimated lift: +8-10pp NDR at M6.
Pro tips
  • An expansion cohort with 110%+ NDR is more valuable than a new cohort — protect it before chasing growth.
  • If every cohort has flat NDR, you have no upsell motion — build one before scaling acquisition.
  • Pair this with the retention prompt to separate logo churn from dollar churn.
Works with
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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